Padres at 28-18: Sitting 2nd in NL West With 79% Playoff Odds Through 46 Games
Through 46 games, the San Diego Padres are quietly building one of their strongest starts in recent memory. At 28-18, they sit second in the NL West behind the Dodgers and hold a 79% probability of making the playoffs according to major projection models.
By the Numbers
- Record: 28-18 (.609 winning percentage)
- NL West standing: 2nd place
- Playoff probability: ~79%
- Run differential: +47
Recent Action
The Padres closed out a road trip to Milwaukee with a dramatic 3-1 comeback victory over the Brewers on May 13, scoring three runs in the top of the ninth inning. The late rally typified a team that has shown resilience throughout the first quarter of the season.
The pitching staff has been the backbone of the strong start, posting a combined ERA that ranks among the top five in the National League. The bullpen, in particular, has been a revelation after offseason additions stabilized late-inning situations.
What’s Ahead
The schedule gets tougher in the coming weeks with series against divisional rivals and contending teams from the American League. How the Padres navigate this stretch will likely determine whether they can close the gap with the Dodgers or settle into a wild-card race.
Home attendance at Petco Park has been strong, averaging over 38,000 per game — a reflection of San Diego’s appetite for winning baseball.
Source: MLB box scores, Baseball Reference, FanGraphs playoff projections. All statistics current as of May 19, 2026.